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By Heiko Weckbrodt
Dresden. Externally, car managers use euphemisms and reassuring words. They talk about "adjustments" when sales are falling and they want to downsize their workforces. They talk about "complex challenges" when supply chains are actually threatening to break down and quality problems are increasing. And the fact that, after investing billions in new electric car factories in recent years, sales of electric cars are disappointing to say the least is described as a "need for more education" for customers.
But behind the scenes, the alarm bells in the East German automotive industry are ringing ever louder. This was made clear on Wednesday at a conference of the industry association "Automotive Cluster East Germany" (ACOD) in the - already partially shut down - VW Dresden factory.
What makes CEOs, CFOs, strategy consultants and plant managers particularly nervous is that many factories are not even close to full capacity. Volkswagen's electric car factories in Mosel, for example, are reportedly only running at around two thirds of their actual capacity. And at the ACOD conference venue itself, in the Transparent Factory, guests had to look for a long time before a worker or robot moved anywhere. When asked, VW Saxony boss Danny Auerswald did not want to comment on the latest announcements from Wolfsburg, according to which plant closures and job cuts in Germany can no longer be ruled out.
However, he euphemistically announced that the Zwickau plant would "drive according to the order situation" in 2025, that he wanted to "streamline" entire areas, "avoid duplication of work" and also promote the use of artificial intelligence outside of core production. All of this is all the more bitter as Volkswagen had put all its eggs in one basket in Zwickau and Dresden and converted both production facilities completely to ID electric vehicles at great expense - which did not exactly prove to be a sales hit.
And it's not just the Volkswagen-Group, which is ailing: Other car manufacturers and suppliers in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg have also invested enormous sums in electric car factories, new production lines or even their own battery production. However, the demand for German electric cars in this country and in key target markets remains far below original expectations in some cases. One example is the Mercedes plant in Ludwigsfelde, which produces around 448,000 vans per year. Of these, only 22,700 are electric vans, i.e. around five percent. "We could convert half of production to electric variants very quickly from a standing start and even to 100 percent with relatively little investment," reports plant manager Jörg Homering. "But the demand is simply not there." This also came as a surprise to him, as the switch to electric vans pays off much more quickly for business customers, which Ludwigsfelde primarily serves, than for private users. "But they just don't want to." The demand is somehow "disappointing".
In addition, the expansion of electric vehicle capacity that was once initiated has not even been completed yet, although many factories are already underutilized. Manufacturers such as Tesla in Grünheide or Porsche in Leipzig are currently still expanding their capacities. However, many expansion projects were decided over two years ago, dating back to a time when the electromobile future in Germany still seemed bright. "Today, we would probably no longer receive these investment commitments," admits plant manager Gerd Rupp, referring to the most recent expansion of the Porsche plant in Leipzig, which cost around half a billion euros.
Another crisis factor: many East German factories report chronically unstable supply chains. For example, the recent blockades in the Red Sea had also disrupted supplies for the Tesla-plant in Grünheide was temporarily paralyzed. By its own admission, the management is now responding by establishing and expanding regional and local supply chains. Gerd Rupp from Porsche also considers the supplier situation to be difficult: "The supplier structures are extremely unstable," he reports. In his opinion, many automotive suppliers are having persistent problems getting to grips with quality, a shortage of skilled workers and their own financial situation. Stefan Friese from Opel Eisenach expressed a similar view: "The environment will remain unstable for the next few years."
